Does path dependency in scientific community shape technological uncertainty?

Strategic Technology Adoption under Technological Uncertainty

How far does scientific community look back?

How does the published scientific literature used by scientific community? Many previous studies make analysis on the static usage data. In this research, we propose the concept of dynamic usage data. Based on the platform of realtime.springer.com, we have been monitoring and recording the dynamic usage data of Scientometrics articles round the clock. Our analysis find that papers published in ...

Recombinant Uncertainty in Technological Search

While the course of technological change is widely accepted to be highly uncertain and unpredictable, little work has identified or studied the ultimate sources and causes of that uncertainty. This paper proposes that purely technological uncertainty derives from inventors’ search processes with unfamiliar components and component combinations. Experimentation with new components and new combin...

Uncertainty and Technological Change

I would like to begin with two generally accepted propositions: First, technological change is a major ingredient of long-term economic growth, and second, technological change is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Understanding the nature of these uncertainties and the obstacles to surmounting them is not a trivial matter. Rather, it goes to the heart of how new technologies are de...

Technological Decision-Making Under Scientific Uncertainty Preventing Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV in South Africa